Opposition pledges yet infulfilled

IPS (26/6/08): Even as the Anwar Ibrahim-led opposition Peoples Alliance coalition celebrates 100 days in office this week with huge rallies across the country, the public euphoria that brought them into power is beginning to cool off as people tighten their belts in the face of a slowing economy and escalating cost of living. Demands are rising for the opposition to implement their pledges.

It is clear now that it was easy to make election pledges, but next to impossible to fulfil some of them, especially the promise to lower the price of petrol to pre-2004 levels --world price then was about 20 dollars a barrel. The price of oil is now hitting 150 dollars a barrel.

In 2004, pump prices in Malaysia were under RM0.92, but today the price is RM2.70 and set to rise to RM3.20 by yearend.

"I cannot understand how Mr. Anwar is going to lower pump prices when world price is set to cross 200 dollars by year end," said a University of Malaya economist who declined to be identified, for fear of repercussions. "I think he has to tell his legions of supporters soon that petrol prices will only rise and not drop because the commodity is limited but usage is increasing," the economist told IPS.

For the opposition -- which captured five states and won 82 of the 222- seats -- the issue is pressing.

"As the opposition we promised the sky to win but as the government now we have great difficulty to deliver because we don’t have the power, our power to effect change is limited," opposition lawmaker Tian Chua told IPS. "But we are doing our best and the people understand it... they are with us," he said.

Many are still in a state of shock having been transformed overnight from "street fighters" battling police to lawmakers. The size of the victory and the suddenness of the transformation took everybody by surprise.

Voters who believed the opposition rhetoric and voted for change to see their lives transformed for the better are increasingly unhappy that change is slow to arrive.

"We want an end to corruption, we want accountability and transparency, we want redistribution of wealth and we want to see equality for all races," said R. S. Thanenthiran, national co-coordinator of the Makkal Sakthi or People Power movement that helped to bring the disparate opposition into power. "The era of blaming the previous governments for all the ills in the country is over and people want the new leaders to deliver," he said. "But they are still trapped in the old mentality," he told IPS in an interview. "They are the government now and they have to deliver."

A key opposition challenge is how to satisfy rising expectations which are fuelled by opposition rhetoric and rising cost of living -- on Jun. 5 there was a 41 percent hike in petrol and 61 percent hike in diesel prices.

Before the fuel hike the country’s poverty rate -- calculated by a household income of RM800 -- was 3.7 percent of the population, or 27 million people. After the fuel hike, and resulting massive jump in cost of living, the government is proposing to a new "lower income" category who earn RM2,000 and below. Nearly 25 percent of the population will fall under this new category of "low income earners".

The new definition covers only expenses for food, clothes, rental, utilities, transport, communication, health and education, former banker turned government minister for special functions, Amirsham Aziz told parliament on Jun. 24.

"Many among the former middle class are now falling into the lower income category and they are fearful and looking to the opposition political parties for deliverance," said S. Sivananthan, a senior official with the Malaysian Trade Union Congress, an umbrella body for private sector unions. "Clearly the former boom years are turning into lean years and people are angry at the sudden lost of status," he said.

The opposition Peoples Alliance is made up of three disparate political parties and has yet to formulate a single, holistic agenda to raise wages and household income and redistribute national wealth -- the key demands of the people.

Instead the former opposition is resorting to distributing sugar, rice and cooking oil to the poor and so doing are fuelling higher expectations for more handouts. "A comprehensive and workable scheme of measure to beat inflation and raise income is not in place yet," Sivananthan told IPS. "Populist measures like free rice are temporary measures and will raise expectation without solving the root cause which is low wages."

The difference between the three political parties that make up the Peoples Alliance is also a contributing factor in the failure to offer a comprehensive common agenda. While PAS, a Muslim fundamentalist party, wants a greater role for Sharia in the five opposition ruled states, the secular, Chinese-based Democratic Action Party supports defending the secular constitution and stopping the advance of Islam in a multi-ethnic secular society. Anwar and his Peoples Justice Party -- Malay-led but nominally secular -- is left sandwiched between the two feuding foes and drained by the constant need to keep the peace.

Increasingly public attitude toward Anwar is unfriendly, seeing him as pre- occupied more with grabbing state power by toppling Prime Minister Abdullah Badawi and less on alleviating the real problems the masses face. In fact, Anwar, who controls 82 seats in parliament, is preoccupied with secret negotiations to persuade government backbenchers to defect to his side. If he can get 30 lawmakers to defect he says he can topple Abdullah and form the next government without facing the voters for a fresh mandate.

Many of his own colleagues are openly against "buying" political opponents to make up the numbers because that may cause national instability, and put the Peoples Alliance at the mercy of the defectors whose loyalties will always be questioned. "It is also unethical… we should work at representing the people in parliament, act as an efficient check and balance on the federal government and go for a new mandate," said veteran opposition lawmaker Karpal Singh. "I am against using defectors to topple the government," he told IPS.

Many lawmakers also feel the future of the Peoples Alliance lies in addressing fundamental problems, and on populist measures like distributing food and cooking oil. Nevertheless the opposition victory has given the people fresh hopes that the new government is for them, and in their interest will be not hijacked by the rich and powerful.

After an initial huge jump in expectations and optimism the mood is now "cautious but optimistic" for the Peoples Alliance, partially because people still have grievances with the former National Front governments and their arrogant ways. But, experts warn, these are still the first 100 days and public mood could change dramatically unless the former opposition now in government put aside their differences, abandon populist measures and come together to tackle the real issues - which are poverty, low wages, rising cost of living and lack of social mobility (Baradan Kuppusamy).

Malaysia's government wins first test of strength in Parliament over fuel price hike

AP (23/6/08): Malaysia's government won a vote in Parliament Monday on its decision to raise fuel prices, passing its first test of legislative strength after being mauled by the opposition in general elections.

The victory will be seen as a vote of confidence in Prime Minister Abdullah Ahmad Badawi's ruling National Front coalition, including his highly unpopular June 4 order to raise gasoline prices by 41 percent and diesel prices by 63 percent.

Parliamentary speaker Pandikar Amin Mulia announced that a nonbinding motion to support the price hike was passed in a vote after a daylong debate in the 222-member house.

Pandikar said: "129 legislators supported the motion and 78 opposed. Therefore the motion is passed." He did not say how many members abstained or how many were absent.

A loss of the vote would not have brought down the government or overturned the price hike. But it would have been a major embarrassment for Abdullah, who has faced calls from his own party members to step down for returning the Front to power with a vastly reduced majority in the March 8 elections.

The opposition had hoped to turn it into a vote of no confidence, but the government was never in danger of losing such a vote unless ruling party members turned against Abdullah. The National Front has 140 lawmakers against the opposition's 82.

"This is a victory vote that oppresses the people. We regret it," said Salahuddin Ayub, a lawmaker of the opposition Pan-Malaysian Islamic Party.

The vote also eases fears that Front lawmakers would abandon Abdullah and defect to the opposition led by former Deputy Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim.

"There is no question about Front MPs wanting to jump over to the other side," said Nazri Abdul Aziz, a Cabinet minister.

During the debate, Domestic Trade and Consumer Affairs Minister Shahrir Abdul Samad defended the fuel price hike.

"The government was forced to make the unpopular move of hiking fuel prices but it has not neglected its social responsibilities," he said.

After the government drastically reduced decades of subsidies, the pump price of gasoline price went up to 2.70 ringgit a liter (US$3.20 a gallon) - still cheaper than in most countries in the region.

Shahrir said the subsidy system was inefficient.

"As we move towards becoming a developed nation our subsidy system needs to be restructured gradually to ensure that our economy is really efficient and competitive," he said.

The opposition rejected the argument.

"We feel that the government does not really understand nor realize the impact of the fuel price hike," said Lim Guan Eng of the opposition Democratic Action Party.

Earlier Monday four opposition lawmakers, one in a suit and the others in shirts and ties, arrived at Parliament on bicycles to highlight the fuel price hike.

"We want the people to know that we understand their hardships and that we will fight for them in Parliament," said N. Gobalakrishan who, along with his three cycling companions, was sweating profusely.

First session of Parliament concludes with many changes

NST (1/6/08): The first session of the 12th Parliament opened on April 28 with many changes. Various quarters are relieved that the 16-day session ended on Thursday before resuming in June.

It was punctuated with high drama, surprises and antics from the MPs, of whom 99 were first-time legislators.

Many opposition and government MPs fought for the opportunity to drive home their points during debates, probably prompted by the live telecasts of them beamed by RTM1 for 30 minutes.

The first session attracted a lot of attention because the Barisan Nasional (BN) was returned to power in the March 8 general election with only a simple majority winning 140 seats with the Pakatan Rakyat (PR) alliance of Parti Keadilan Rakyat (PKR), DAP and PAS grabbing 81 seats while another seat went to an Independent candidate.

With a bigger opposition bench, Dewan Rakyat speaker Tan Sri Pandikar Amin Mulia and his deputies, Datuk Wan Junaidi Tuanku Jaafar and Datuk Ronald Kiandee, faced a daunting task in dealing with the point of order raised time and again by MPs on the first day of the question and answer session.

Eventually, only three questions could be answered by the government during the question time before it moved on with the debate on the royal address.

"This is because everybody wants to be on television,” was Datuk Ibrahim Ali’s (Independent-Pasir Mas) take on what happened.

Ibrahim was also chided by Datuk Abdul Ghapur Salleh (BN-Kalabakan) for not wearing a lounge suit as required during the swearing-in ceremony.

However, Pandikar said the ruling did not apply to Ibrahim as an Independent MP he did not have a Chief Whip to remind him.

Ibrahim quipped, “Congratulations, Speaker sir, you are a learned man.”

Datuk Anifah Aman (BN-Kimanis) and Abdul Ghapur also warned BN leaders that the political tsunami experienced by the coalition in the general election would become even worse for it if the problems faced by Sabahans were not dealt with.

"It does not mean that when we champion the aspirations of the people, we are going against the government. It does not mean that when use strong words we want to jump ship. What we are telling the Dewan, the people of Sabah will not jump ship like in five states in the peninsula,” said Anifah.

In another breath, he said it was not impossible to “move from a bungalow to a terrace house if you are given enough space. Never mind a terrace house if you are accorded the same facilities but in a bungalow you are made to sleep beside the toilet,” he said in referring to the raw deal Sabahans were getting from the federal government.

Talk that some BN MPs from Sabah would jump ship became rife after PKR adviser Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim had time and again expounded that the opposition would form the government with the defection of disgruntled BN MPs from Sabah.

Speaking to the press outside the Dewan Rakyat, Abdul Rahman Dahalan (BN-Kota Belud) lent weight to the talk by saying that he was offered benefits which could last three generations if he were to defect to PKR.

He lodged reports with the Anti-Corruption Agency in Sabah and Kuala Lumpur.

The Dewan Rakyat sitting also saw both BN and opposition MPs trading inauspicious remarks like `Projek Babi Negara’ by Mahfuz Omar (PAS-Pokok Sena) when he reacted to Khairy Jamaluddin’s (BN-Rembau) insinuation on PKR accronym as “Projek Khinzir Raksasa”. At another time, the Dewan Rakyat was interrupted for 10 minutes when Deputy Higher Education Minister Datuk Idris Haron said a Tamil word `ukkar’ (sit down) but some MPs said it could become a vulgar word if wrongly pronounced.

N. Gobalakrishnan (PKR-Padang Serai) was reproached when he approached the speaker’s bench and whispered the meaning of the word to him.

On another occasion, Gobalakrishnan brought P Waythamoorthy’s six-year-old daughter to Parliament’s lobby to celebrate her birthday.

Waythamoorthy is one of the leaders of the Hindraf organisation and is on self-imposed exile overseas following the detention of five of its other leaders under the Internal Security Act.

Ibrahim, meanwhile, had the misfortune of being mobbed in Parliament’s lobby by about 30 disabled people who took exception to his remarks against wheelchair-bound Karpal Singh (DAP-Bukit Gelugor) for not standing up when raising a point of order.

On seeing this, Datuk Bung Moktar Radin (BN-Kinabatangan,) who is also the Backbencher’s Club deputy chairman, pointed out the need to tighten security in the Dewan Rakyat.

Unlike before, Parliament’s car park was full during the session while the media centre was crowded as more reporters were assigned to cover the developments at the august house.

As for Prime Minister Datuk Seri Abdullah Ahmad Badawi and his deputy Datuk Seri Najib Tun Razak, they were seen working at their offices at the Dewan Rakyat when their presence was not required.

On Wednesday, for the first time, a supply bill was approved through block voting - 92 Barisan Nasional MPs voted in favour of the bill, 60 opposition MPs voted against it while another did not cast his vote.

The Supplementary Supply Bill 2008 (2007) on the provision to the statutory fund an amount of RM16.810 billion was earlier debated at the committee stage.

The decision to call for block voting caused many MPs including Abdullah and Najib to rush into the Dewan Rakyat when the bell was rang.

Minister in the Prime Minister’s Department Datuk Seri Nazri Aziz was also seen calling the MPs to come back to the house.

When Wan Junaidi announced that a lone MP did not register his vote, many MPs turned their heads towards Ibrahim Ali.

Several opposition MPs quipped that they might be lucky the next time. (Ahmad Shukran Shaharuddin - Bernama)

Party behind Pak Lah

Malay Mail (26/5/08):It was well past midnight at the 39th floor of the Umno headquarters on Thursday when top party leaders held a four-hour emergency meeting to discuss the sudden resignation by Tun Dr Mahathir Mohamad as Umno member and his call to Umno and BN members to resign and bring down the government.

While some Umno leaders were in a sombre mood, Umno president and Prime Minister Datuk Seri Abdullah Ahmad Badawi was relaxed and jovial. He deftly left it to his deputy Datuk Seri Najib Razak to handle the announcement, saying since the issues discussed involved him it was better Najib spoke.

During the seven-minute Press conference, Abdullah sat calm and relaxed. Taken together, it was hardly the picture of a man in deep trouble, whose government was tottering on the brink as political analysts were saying.

In fact, he was like a man with a heavy burden taken off his shoulders.

The debate behind closed doors had gone mostly his way. Although Umno leaders worried over the implications of Dr Mahathir’s dramatic resignation on the Umno grassroots, they were also worked up over the quandary their former leader had left them in.

“We had no problem standing firm behind Abdullah because doing what (Tun Dr) Mahathir is asking is sheer nonsense,” said a Supreme Council member. “It will plunge the country into chaos.

“We don’t accept his logic of how Umno and BN can remain strong against a united opposition by us resigning and becoming independent. It doesn’t masuk akal (make any sense).” The Supreme Council which accepted Dr Mahathir’s resignation decided it only ambil maklum, or takes note, of the resignation and hoped one day he would rejoin Umno.

Significantly the Supreme Council did not decide to woo Dr Mahathir back or set up a special committee to debate his reasons to quit as it had done when then deputy president Datuk (now Tun) Musa Hitam resigned in 1986.

Only Najib appears to hold out saying he will meet Dr Mahathir to discuss the resignation. For all intents and purposes, it appears Dr Mahathir’s resignation is final unless Umno sees dramatic upheavals, which seem unlikely.

Umno has a tradition of closing ranks behind leaders leaving in anger as in the case of Umno founder Datuk Onn Jaafar in 1951. Likewise Dr Mahathir’s departure will help Abdullah consolidate his position, purge the party of Mahathir loyalists and begin the long process to get Umno back on its feet. The party is preparing an Umno Rejuvenation Plan and a special meeting of the Supreme Council will be held to finalise details of the plan whose success or failure will make or break the party.

Dr Mahathir, however, remains a key player in Umno and the political stage. The increasingly racial overtones of his campaign are worrying many Malaysians who wonder how far he would go to exploit Malay fears of their political future.

Abdullah also has to contend with Tengku Razaleigh Hamzah trying to get to the political centre stage from the sidelines.

A more direct threat is the stratagems of senior vice-president Tan Sri Muhyiddin Yassin who has come to a crossroad in his career.

With the Abdullah-Najib team set to be re-elected in December, Muhyiddin either goes for broke challenging either one of the incumbents or defends his vice-president’s post, a very unattractive proposition.

Either way the risks are very high but his increasingly hostile attitude towards Abdullah indicates he is preparing for high risk play.

On the outside, Abdullah has to grapple with the dangers from the Prime Minister-in-waiting Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim whose fre- quent claims to “have the numbers” to topple the government is unsettling.

Many in the DAP are opposed to Anwar’s moves to buy over BN parliamentarians, seeing it as immoral and unethical. Neither is Pas happy with it, seeing the whole exercise as “useless and entirely un-Islamic”.

Nevertheless, greed is a significant factor in politics and if skillfully exploited can produce results.

Abdullah, therefore, has a tough job ahead — keep Umno united, neutralise Dr Mahathir, head-off Razaleigh’s challenge, save the government from Anwar and carry out reforms, not to mention keeping food and fuel prices down.

Abdullah has one prized asset going for him —the power of incumbency, the power to stay in power. (Baradan Kuppusamy)

ACA quizzes Kota Belud MP

The Sun (22/5/08): The Anti-Corruption Agency (ACA) has started an investigation into a disclosure in Parliament by Kota Belud MP Datuk Abdul Rahman Dahlan that he was offered enough money to last "two or three future generations" to defect to Parti Keadilan Rakyat (PKR).

Its Director of Investigation Datuk Mohd Shukri Abdul told theSun when contacted today that an ACA officer had lodged a report on the disclosure which was reported in the newspaper, adding that Abdul Rahman is also being investigated on why he failed to report the bribery attempt.

Shukri agreed with a statement by Transparency International-Malaysia (TI-M) president Tan Sri Ramon Navaratnam that it was an offence not to report bribery attempts and that Abdul Rahman had also a moral responsibility to do so, as a people's elected representative.

Shukri said once the investigation is completed, the ACA will submit investigation papers to the Attorney-General (A-G) and it is up to the A-G to make decision on whether there was a case for prosecution.

theSun had reported today that Abdul Rahman had yet to lodge a report with the ACA. He told the newspaper he would do so when PKR names 30 MPs it claims are jumping ship so that the Pakatan Rakyat (PR) can form the next government.

The MP had said in Parliament last week that he was promised a cabinet post as well as money to cross over to PKR, describing the sum as sufficient to "last two or three future generations".

The issue created waves in Parliament today, when Ipoh Timur MP Lim Kit Siang accused Barisan Nasional (BN) MPs of not being committed to fighting corruption, citing Abdul Rahman's case.

In reply, Minister in the Prime Minister’s Department Datuk Nazri Abdul Aziz refuted theSun report, saying the ACA has contacted Abdul Rahman on the matter.

“I was contacted by the ACA to ask what kind of action to be taken. I told him to see Kota Belud to get his information,” he told Lim.

Mahfuz Omar (PAS-Pokok Sena) then interjected, asking why the ACA was contacting him first and ask for his instruction before taking action, saying it was as if the agency does not know its own jurisdiction.

Nazri then clarified that the ACA did not seek his permission but was only informing him about the case as he is the minister in charge of Parliament.

Karpal Singh (DAP-Bukit Gelugor) then asked whether Abdul Rahman could confirm in Parliament that he made such statement (that he was offered the money), and if it was true, he could be arrested immediately under citizen's arrest.

Abdul Rahman was seen standing for some time, waiting for deputy speaker Datuk Wan Junaidi’s nod for him to speak and for Nazri to give way.

However, Nazri ignored Abdul Rahman, saying it was true that Abdul Rahman made that statement in the Dewan.

"Let me give the answer. No need (for Abdul Rahman to speak). He can only stand to seek explanation from me. I am still the Minister in the PM’s Department. If you (Karpal) Singh want to ask him, do it outside. He (Abdul Rahman) cannot stand up. He’s a new MP. He does not know. It’s okay. He cannot stand up," he said repeatedly to shouts by Karpal Singh asking him to give way to Abdul Rahman to explain himself.

Minister says he does not order ACA to investigate

Bernama (22/5/08): Minister in the Prime Minister's Department Datuk Seri Mohamed Nazri Aziz said he had not been ordering the Anti-Corruption (ACA) Agency to investigate any case or to take statements.

He said the ACA, however, did contact him regarding a statement made by a Barisan Nasional Member of Parliament that he was offered money by the opposition to cross over.

"Since the ACA had contacted me, I asked them to get in touch with the Kota Belud MP and make a report.

They did not ask for permission (to investigate). They just informed (about the MP's statement) to facilitate their work," he said in the Dewan Rakyat today when winding up the debate on the King's address.

"If I was not informed about it, how would I be able to reply to Lim Kit Siang's (DAP-Ipoh Timur) questions on the issue," he said in reply to Mahfuz Omar (PAS-Pokok Sena) who had asked whether the ACA had to seek permission each time it wanted to act.

On May 15, Kota Belud MP Datuk Abdul Rahman Dahalan revealed that he was offered a large sum of money "that could last for three generations" if he defected to the opposition.

Nazri was also bombarded with questions, especially from opposition lawmakers, as to why the use of delible ink for voters was cancelled only three days before the March 8 general election, why there were conflicting statements between the prime minister and the Election Commission (EC) chairman on the matter, from where the ink was bought and what happened to it now.

He explained that the cancellation was because of the legal implications if some voters refused to be tainted with the ink (on their finger) while they had the right to vote under the Federal Constitution.

He said the use of indelible ink was to prevent multiple voting by any voter but if some voters refused the ink use, then it would defeat its purpose.

Opposition leader Datin Seri Dr Wan Azizah Wan Ismail (PKR-Permatang Pauh), Fong Po Kuan (DAP-Batu Gajah), Khalid Samad (PAS-Shah Alam), Dr Zulkifli Ahmad (PAS-Kuala Selangor) and Mahfuz all stood up to ask who had lied and who was responsible in the matter.

Nazri said when the Attorney-General informed the cabinet that the use of the indelible ink would have legal implications, it rejected the use and informed the EC about it.

"The cabinet had conveyed its rejection but it did not mean that it ordered the EC not to use the ink. Rejection and ordering are two different things," he added.

Abdullah calls emergency talks over Mahathir

The Sun (21/5/08): Prime Minister Datuk Seri Abdullah Ahmad Badawi called an emergency session of his ruling party's top policy-making body today, seeking to stamp his authority after the dramatic resignation of ex-premier Tun Dr Mahathir Mohamad form Umno (United Malays National Organisation).

Mahathir's departure, which cast further doubt on Abdullah's future, has raised Malaysia's political risks and spooked investors as the government grapples with high inflation, slowing economy and rising subsidies.

Abdullah, who has scheduled to chair a special meeting of an Umno supreme council at 8pm today, also faced pressure from former deputy premier Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim, the leader of the Opposition Pakatan Rakyat (PR) coalition.

Anwar has said his group had the numbers to topple the government.

"The excessive politicking has generated extra uncertainties into the whole political and economic environment," said Zainal Aznam Yusof, a senior fellow in Malaysia's Institute of Strategic and International Studies.

Umno has been in turmoil since a poor showing in the March 12th General Election, when the ruling Barisan Nasional (BN) coalition which Umno dominates lost its crucial two-thirds majority in parliament.

Malaysia said today the annual inflation rate hit 3.0% in April, the highest in 15 months, led by firmer food prices. The government is also considering reforms to fuel subsidy policy, aware that substantial fuel price hikes could stoke popular anger.

Record food and energy prices are increasing Malaysian price pressures but price controls on goods such as flour and cooking oil are helping to keep inflation among the region's lowest.

The stock market eased today, after losing more than 1% the previous day on jitters over the political flux, prompting the second finance minister to reassure the market that economic fundamentals remain strong.

ANWAR WAITING IN THE WINGS?

Mahathir's bombshell resignation on Monday (May 19) from the party he led for 22 years came with a call for other Umno members to quit en masse. A meeting of lawmakers yesterday ignored the call and rallied behind Abdullah.

Mahathir, who has become increasingly vehement in criticism of his successor, said he was leaving Umno in an attempt to force Abdullah out.

Mahathir wrote in his blog www.chedet.com that BN lawmakers should temporarily leave the coalition and declare themselves as independents in a vote of no-confidence in Abdullah.

"This is one way to force Abdullah to resign. Once he resigns, the MPs can return to the BN fold," he said.

Abdullah has refused to quit. Analysts said the most likely outcome of tonight's meeting was a reaffirmation by Umno leaders of their support for him.

"At this point, there are so many factions and alliances within the leadership," said Lee Hock Guan, senior fellow with Singapore's Institute of South East Asian Studies.

"But he will probably get the support of the majority within the Supreme Council."

Mahathir's resignation came three days after Abdullah ordered the Attorney-General to investigate the former premier and five others on possible offences over the appointment of judges while the former premier was in power.

The political uncertainties have added to speculation over whether the BN coalition can keep its stranglehold on power. An emboldened Opposition, headed by Mahathir arch-foe Anwar, is seeking to wrest parliamentary control by wooing BN defectors.

'WE HAVE THE NUMBERS'

"I do intend to topple the government, we have the numbers," Anwar told reporters in Singapore, a claim echoed by government insiders.

"I'm looking forward to early elections," Anwar said, adding that he hoped these would take place before September.

"The moment we are sure we can contest, we move."

"If you have a one to two majority, the government will be too fragile ... You don't need a two-thirds majority," he said, adding that he wanted a majority of five or six and saw a vote of no-confidence in parliament as the best course of action.

Umno, backbone of the 14-party BN coalition that has ruled since independence from Britain in 1957, holds 79 of its 140 seats.

The opposition is a loose alliance of Islamists (PAS), a Chinese-based party (DAP) and the multiracial Parti Keadilan Rakyat (PKR), and needs to gain just 30 seats to win a simple majority and form the government.

In a sign that the party is tearing itself apart, the leader of Umno's youth wing demanded today that another senior member, Mukhriz Mahathir, son of the former premier, face disciplinary action for urging Abdullah to resign.

Mukhriz said yesterday he would not join his father in quitting Umno but demanded that the premier steps down.

But another of Mahathir's sons, businessman Mokhzani, decided to leave the party, along with Mahathir's wife. - Reuters

Opposition woos Mahathir, but son defies his call

Malaysia Sun (21/5/08): The initial response to the rebellion by Malaysia's former prime minister Mahathir Mohamad who quit the United Malay National Organisation (UMNO) has been poor. Most lawmakers, including his son, have ignored his call that they follow suit.

While UMNO lawmakers reposed their faith in Prime Minister Abdullah Ahmad Badawi's leadership, only 156 members in Kedah state, to which Mahathir belongs, have followed him out of the party, reported The Sun newspaper.

Mahathir's son Mukhriz Mahathir, 44, a first-term lawmaker, said after a meeting with Badawi that his father had quit UMNO 'out of love' but that he would not do so.

However, on Tuesday, Mahathir received an invite from the Pan Malaysian Islamic Party (PAS) and the Party Keadalan Rakyat (PKR) of former deputy prime minister Anwar Ibrahim, whom he had sacked and jailed a decade ago. The two opposition parties have gained strength in this March's general election and are threatening to pull down the Badawi government.

Mahathir has thus to choose between his hand picked successor Badawi and his old foe Ibrahim. Political analysts have said a Mahathir rebellion has the potential of boosting Ibrahim's political prospects.

Ibrahim's PKR has the support of 82 lawmakers and needs just 30 more to cross over from the Badawi-led ruling coalition Barisan Nasional (BN) to form a government, media reports have said.

While Ibrahim has gloated over the UMNO crisis, his wife Wan Azizah Wan Ismail who leads the parliamentary opposition said the whole issue was 'just about UMNO's internal politics' and it showed that the party had 'no direction'.

'We, however, welcome it if it makes our party stronger and they (UMNO members) are also welcome to join us,' she was quoted by The Star as saying (IANS).

Don’t dismiss the rumbles

Sabahan politicians are voicing their grouses, and a good piece of advice for Putrajaya would be to take what they are saying seriously.

The Star (18/5/08): The voices of Sabahans are literally being heard in the Dewan Rakyat these days. Speaker Tan Sri Pandikar Amin Mulia speaks in his heavily accented Sabah Bahasa Malaysia, which his fellow Members of Parliament are learning to follow.

Reporters on the parliamentary beat now have to check with each other what Pandikar is saying to ensure they get his quotes right.

But that’s not all. Sabahan MPs are now the centre of attention as speculation over the possible crossover of these politicians to Pakatan Rakyat (PR) fires the imagination of the nation.

They have cleverly voiced their unhappiness at the state of affairs back home in the Dewan Rakyat, issuing subtle threats of crossing over but remaining non-committal to any side. In short, they have said plenty but have not committed themselves to anyone.

Sabahan politicians are known for their political skills, having pulled the carpet from under the feet of the Barisan Nasional before.

I remember the PBS pulling out of the Barisan on the eve of a general election. Then Prime Minister Tun Dr Mahathir Mohamad was at Angkasapuri for a concert when Datuk Joseph Pairin in Sabah announced that his party was pulling out from the coalition.

Ironically, the 70s catchy disco song, Hands On, by Ottawan was being sung as the power play took stage.

As the finale ended, Dr Mahathir adjourned for supper, and it was then that Information Minister Datuk Mohamed Rahmat whispered the bad news to him.

Dr Mahathir displayed no emotion and continued to eat. He finally decided to speak to the press close to midnight.

But he struck back hard at the rebellion, which he described as “a stab in the back”, and he used the full federal authority to punish the PBS.

Datuk Dr Maximus Ongkili was arrested under the Internal Security Act on charges of endangering national security while Dr Jeffrey Kitingan, who headed a PBS think-tank then, was arrested for plotting to take Sabah out of the federation.

That was not all: Umno decided to expand to Sabah and by 1994, splinter parties from the PBS had been formed.

Tan Sri Bernard Dompok, the PBS deputy president, had set up the United Pasokmomugun Kadazandusun Murut Organisation with himself as president.

Datuk Yong Teck Lee, another PBS deputy president, formed the Sabah Progressive Party and the MCA also set foot in Sabah, splitting the Chinese clout deeper.

It took a long time before the PBS was allowed back to the Barisan.

Now, more than a decade later, PBS leaders, having learnt the painful lesson of being left out in the cold, prefer to be less vocal even as the country’s political temperature shoots up and the uncertainties continue.

But Yong and Dompok are speaking up again. Together with other Sabah leaders from Umno, they are grumbling that they have got a raw deal.

Citing issues from the allocation of seats and positions to the lack of development in Sabah, they are now demanding to be treated rightly and fairly.

We have delivered the votes and now, it’s your turn to deliver: that’s their call, if not an ultimatum, to the Prime Minister.

Last week, both Yong and Dompok warned Datuk Seri Abdullah Ahmad Badawi of the very real possibility of crossovers to PR, saying the Sabah MPs were frustrated.

It is reliably learnt that when Yong met Abdullah, he appealed to the latter three times to take it seriously in order to drive home the point.

Yong gave Abdullah until August, barely three months from now, because the Sabahan politicians are aware that if the defections cannot be executed, the issue would fizzle out.

PR also realises that it needs to show some results, at least a few defections, or its threat would not be taken seriously.

The media-savvy Sabah politicians understand the short attention span of Malaysians.

If it takes too long, then the likelihood of a strong crossover to reduce the numbers on the government bench, if not topple the Government, would diminish.

From the media focus on the Olympics to the fasting month in September, it would also have its impact on the timing of the defections.

A good piece of advice for Putrajaya would be to take what the Sabahans are saying seriously. (Wong Chun Wai)

Give PM more time, Sabah MPs told

Borneo News (16/5/08): Parti Bersatu Rakyat Sabah (PBRS) President Tan Sri Joseph Kurup has urged Sabah members of parliament (MPs) to give more time to Prime Ministers Datuk Seri Abdullah Ahmad Badawi to resolve their proposals without applying too much pressure.

While acknowledging that Sabah had given substantial parliamentary seats to the Barisan Nasional (BN) in the last general election, he said that the elected representatives should be mindful of the assurance given by Abdullah during his recent visit here.

In this respect, they should remain calm and be patient until the Prime Minister could work out more positive solutions towards meeting their demand, Kurup said.

SAPP President Datuk Yong Teck Lee said there is no guarantee his party will remain in the BN coalition if Sabah's problem are not addressed by the Federal Government by August.

Kurup, who is also Deputy Rural and Regional Development Minister, added an example where the Prime Minister had given due consideration to the request made by PBRS.

He expressed optimism that Abdullah, if given enough room, would acoord due attention to the requests by the Sabah BN component parties.

He said the Government being set up by the Opposition resulting from the exodus of BN MPs would not be fully acceptable to the people, thereby betraying the mandate of the majority voters in Sabah.

Kurup criticised Party Keadilan Rakyat (PKR) de factor leader Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim for being vocal on the possibility of Sabah MPs changing side with the Opposition in a bid to wrest power of the Federal Government.

BN had received majority support from Sabah voters, who would not want to be betrayed by unwarranted crossovers, he said.

According to Kurup, the Government that the Pakatan Rakyat (PKR, DAP and PAS) is trying to form through BN MPs switching parties will not last long. It will crumble just like a building being detonated.

He said the people will not have confidence in a government formed in that manner. Instead, the international community will not respect a government formed through party-hopping.

‘Good numbers’ ready to defect to PKR, says Azmin

The Edge Daily (16/5/08): Parti Keadilan Rakyat vice president Azmin Ali (Gombak-PKR) insisted that good numbers of MPs on both sides of the South China Sea would be defecting to the party.

“We have good numbers. Credible numbers. Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim had said many times that we need a strong and credible government. If we only have 30 then there is a lot of risk because it would be a fragile government.

“We do not want to form a fragile government. We want to form a strong government and want the transition to be smooth. That is also an important element that we have to consider,” he said in Parliament lobby yesterday.

When told that the Sabah MPs had said they were not going to cross over, Azmin said: “Wait and see.”

He said Anwar and PKR were approached by the MPs first instead of the other way round. He also challenged Kota Belud MP Datuk Abdul Rahman Dahlan to prove the allegations of attempts to buy him over by PKR.

On Wednesday, Abdul Rahman said that “friends”, who had good connections in both Umno and PKR had approached him and asked if he wanted to create history by bringing down the Barisan Nasional government.

Azmin said the MPs knew they need a strong leadership. “We have a leadership issue in the country, which is weak leadership. Do not underestimate the MPs’ wisdom.

“They need a strong person who can call the shots and offer good development package,” he said, adding his party did not offer any monetary enticement but development packages for the people of Sabah and Sarawak.

He said the MPs’ anger was real, as they had to go back and face their constituents.

Asked on the date that Pakatan Rakyat would be forming the federal government, Azmin said Anwar had mentioned September 16. “It would be formed latest by September 16.”

On Information Minister Datuk Shaberry Cheek labelling of leaders who pleaded for crossovers as ‘political prostitutes’, Azmin said: “Who was Shaberry Cheek before this? From PAS to Semangat 46 and then to Umno. He is the political prostitute if he wants to use the term. I didn’t use it. Tell him to remember the history.”

On the 20% oil royalty that PKR is offering, he said rational people would accept that as compared to the 5% offered by BN.

As for the complications in adjusting the oil royalty agreement between Petronas and the government, Azmin said: “They cancelled the one between Petronas and Terengganu. Umno converted the oil royalty into Wang Ehsan. How do you explain that?”

He also reiterated they would reduce the petrol and gas prices upon forming the federal government. They would return the royalty to Terengganu while abolishing the Federal Development Department (JPP) in Kelantan and Sabah, he added.

Azmin also told reporters that the shadow Cabinet would be announced in due time.

Asked if Anwar would contest in a by-election he said there were several options available for Anwar, including a senatorship and by-election.

Meanwhile, Science, Technology and Innovation Minister Datuk Dr Maximus Ongkili yesterday denied that some BN MPs had switched parties. According to a Bernama report, Ongkili said the matter was an old story and the speculation had been spreading since the 12th general election concluded.

“The rumour from the opposition is actually to undermine the existing political stability. I feel it is also to undermine the mental stability of politicians from Sabah and Sarawak,” he told reporters after officiating at Mimos Bhd’s portal eBioChem at Seri Kembangan near here.

EC wants provision for anti-hop law

The Star (16/5/08): The anti-hopping law should be drafted and a new provision inserted into the Federal Constitution, Election Commission (EC) deputy chairman Datuk Wan Ahmad Wan Omar proposed.

He said it was about time an anti-hopping law was introduced, and likened MPs jumping to another party as breaching the trust of voters.

“The EC has never discussed this issue, and feels there is no need to do so, but in my personal opinion, if we look at the purpose and objective of the elections, it is a rational move to provide a law to prevent party-hopping,” he told The Star’s Malay news portal mStar Online.

Wan Ahmad said a special provision could be included in the Federal Constitution to get around Article 48(6).

Article 48(6) of the Constitution states that a person who resigns his membership of the House of Representatives shall, for a period of five years beginning with the date on which his resignation takes effect, be disqualified from being a member of the House of Representatives.

“If the Government is serious, we can insert a new provision in the Constitution, noting that Articles 113 to 120 touch on many aspects relating to elections.”

Wan Ahmad said Article 48(6) was introduced to prevent wakil rakyat from resigning and recontesting just to test their popularity.

“Therefore, a subsection related to the behaviour of MPs and state assemblymen can be included, like the Government taking action to prevent elected representatives from resigning to test their popularity,” he said.

Wan Ahmad acknowledged that there were views that having an anti-hopping law contravened the freedom to pick parties.

“But actually, the wakil rakyat is picked based on the party, and he contested under that particular party’s ticket, manifesto and beliefs.

“So if they choose to leave the party after they are elected by voters, it is a breach of trust,” he said.

Dompok: Crossovers a real threat

The Star (16/5/08): Another president of a Sabah Barisan Nasional component party has sounded the alarm bell that the possibility of crossovers is very real.

United Pasokmomogun Kadazandusun Murut Organisation (Upko) president Tan Sri Bernard Dompok said the frustrations of Sabahans and their representatives in getting the Federal Government to solve their long list of problems are “extremely real” and talk about MPs crossing over to join the Opposition is symptomatic of this frustration.

He said the longstanding issues affecting Sabahans could no longer be “swept under the carpet” and MPs were under a lot of pressure to resolve the people’s problems.

Any decision for Upko to leave the Barisan fold will be made by the party and not by him, Dompok stressed to the press Friday.

He said that while Upko’s three other MPs had not raised the subject of leaving the party “at the moment,” he admitted: “Their frustrations are real. I think no one can deny it”.

When asked if any of the Upko MPs, including himself, had been approached by the Opposition leaders, Dompok replied: “Not yet as far as I know.

“But if these people (from the Pakatan Rakyat) want to talk to me in Parliament, there is no reason why I should not talk to them. We are all MPs anyway.”

He said there were still many issues, among them immigrants and basic infrastructure, waiting to be resolved in Sabah.

“The people of Sabah have been taken for granted because we are a laidback, easy-going people. The state is thousands of miles away from the nation’s capital. As they say, out of sight, out of mind,” he said.

Dompok said constituents in Sabah have always been vocal but failed to grab the media’s attention until “recent changes in the political environment”.

To a question, he said that the majority of the grassroots wanted action and they would not mind if their MPs crossed over to the Opposition, as long as their problems were ironed out and their demands were met.

“There are people who condemn crossovers, saying that it is immoral and such. But who are they and why are they taking the moral high ground, when in their previous lives, they too, have done it.

“But if you ask me, I don’t think the Opposition will make the numbers,” he said.

Asked if Barisan should be worried that crossovers would eventually become a reality, Dompok said that the Government must be confident of doing the right thing.

“If you are confident, no one is going to desert you,” he said.

Opposition takeover not easy

Daily Express (16/5/08): Over the last few weeks, there has been talk that the opposition front may be in a position to form the next Federal Government given the not-so-robust majority of Barisan Nasional (BN) in Parliament after the 12th general election.

Debates and conversations on this probability or improbability have been taking centre stage of late among politicians, political analysts, business people and even people at the grassroots.

The BN has 140 seats or 63.1 per cent of the total number of 222 seats. It garnered 4.082 million votes during the election or 50.6 per cent of the popular vote.

If Parti Keadilan Rakyat (PKR) Adviser Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim is to be believed, then perhaps he may have made it sound rather relatively easy with his contention that all the opposition alliance needs is just 30 Members of Parliament from the BN to cross over.

They could then form the next government based on a simple majority. At present, the opposition has 82 seats including one independent MP.

Anwar has been reportedly saying that his party had managed to entice a number of MPs who would be willing to jump across.

However, based on a document being distributed by some unknown quarters in Parliament Thursday, the matter is not as easy as it seems.

The document, written by people who have a strong understanding of Constitutional Law, argues that the opposition front, in order to achieve what it aims to do, has to overcome various hurdles in the form of several laws in the Federal Constitution.

According to the document, the number one obstacle is provided under Article 43(5), which states that the Yang di-Pertuan Agong has no power to dismiss the Prime Minister.

But if the Prime Minister ceases to command the confidence of the Dewan Rakyat, then the Prime Minister must exercise one of several choices.

One is to submit the resignation of his entire government as provided for in Article 43(4) or advise the Yang di-Pertuan Agong to dissolve the Dewan Rakyat and call a new election as per Article 43(4).

But the Yang di-Pertuan Agong has the discretion to refuse the advice to dissolve the Dewan Rakyat as stated in Article 40(2)(b). In the event of this, the Yang di-Pertuan Agong has to appoint someone who, in His Majesty's judgement, is likely to command the confidence of the Lower House.

The note also reveals that if the Prime Minister were to lose in a snap vote of confidence but is able to re-group his supporters and rebuild a majority, he is eligible to be re-appointed again as the Yang di-Pertuan Agong has some discretion on who is best able to command the confidence of the Lower House.

Another obstacle for the opposition is that no extra-parliamentary dismissal is possible unless the Dewan Rakyat dismisses the Prime Minister as the Yang di-Pertuan Agong has no power to remove the Prime Minister (Article 43(5)).

To reinforce its contention, the document cited the case of then Sarawak Chief Minister Stephen Kalong Ningkan versus the then Sarawak Yang Dipertua Negeri Tun Abang Haji Openg in Sarawak in 1966, which confirmed that unless there was a vote of no-confidence, a valid appointment cannot be revoked by the Yang Dipertua Negeri.

The document also pointed out that if the Dewan Rakyat were to be dissolved, then the previous Prime Minister would remain in office in a caretaker government capacity.

Although this was not laid down in the Constitution, it was a well established constitutional convention in the United Kingdom (UK), Malaysia and throughout the Commonwealth, it argued.

In addition, the document also argued that the inability of a party to secure a two-third majority did not hamper law-making or the passing of the Federal Government's budget.

"In the UK, governments come to power with less than 50 per cent of the popular vote and with a base majority in the elected House. This is not the first time that the Alliance-BN did not gain a two-third majority. In 1969, the Alliance failed to secure more than 50 per cent of the votes and failed to obtain a two-third majority. Tun Abdul Razak administered the country from Feb 20 1971 to the 1974 elections on a simple majority in the Dewan Rakyat," it stated.

At the same time, the document also pointed out that in the case of Nordin Salleh (1994), the Supreme Court held that the Kelantan anti-hopping law was a breach of freedom guaranteed by Article 10(1)©. Nordin, then the PAS state assemblyman for Sungei Pinang, joined Umno in 1992. The Kelantan State Government then enacted an anti-hopping law for politicians but the Supreme Court later ruled that it was unconstitutional.

The way to overcome this judicial decision is possible through a number of ways. One is to have a constitutional amendment to Article 10 (2)© to forbid party-hopping.

But in the present political context, BN, without a two-third majority, may not be possible to secure this amendment.

The other is to promulgate an Emergency Ordinance under Article 150(2B) to provide for anyone who has been expelled or who resigns from the party on whose ticket he or she was elected to the Dewan Rakyat to vacate his or her seat and return to the electorate in a by-election.

Alternatively, a law can be promulgated to ensure that the "hopper" is disqualified to contest for five years and this will be similar to Article 48(6), which deals with MPs who resign from the Dewan Rakyat.

The note further explains that an emergency ordinance is an executive piece of law-making outside of Parliament, which only requires the Yang di-Pertuan Agong's assent.

It can be enacted if two requirements are met - that there is an emergency in the country and that the two Houses of Parliament are not sitting concurrently.

This ordinance can be justified as a "collapse of civil government" is also a form of "emergency" as laid down by the Privy Council in the Stephen Kalong Ningkan versus the Government of Malaysia (1968) case.

Meanwhile, when told of the document, Deputy Prime Minister Datuk Seri Najib Tun Razak said it was within the constitutional provision that the prime minister could not be dismissed.

"Whatever happens has to be within the context of the constitution," he said at the Parliament lobby.

Asked whether the Emergency Ordinance could be used against MPs who crossed over to another political party, Najib said: "We do not have the anti-hopping law now. I am not sure whether we can do it under the Emergency Ordinance."

Dewan Rakyat: Syed Hamid: Don't sell out for quick gain

NST (16/5/08): Home Minister and Umno supreme council member Datuk Seri Syed Hamid Albar said MPs who switched sides would not help in the effort to create a healthy political climate where integrity was paramount.

"I don't think it is right to switch. If we are bought, it will be the worst political corruption. I hope no politician will think of selling himself for short-term profit."

Speaking on the same issue, Umno Youth deputy head Khairy Jamaludidn (BN-Rembau) said claims by BN members they were lured with money was serious.

"It has reached such an extent that it created questions among the people whether it will undermine democracy in Malaysia.

"I hope the people will think twice when they hear about claims BN reps will jump and question the motive (of the news)," he said.

Khairy also rebutted Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim's claim that Pakatan Rakyat was not buying MPs but there were Barisan MPs who wanted to cross because they were disappointed with BN.

"Don't tell me within two months they all lose hope with the BN," he said.

Meanwhile, Parti Keadilan Rakyat (PKR) vice-president Azmin Ali reiterated that the pact will form the government by Sept 16 but not through "buying over" BN backbenchers.

"They are not coming to us because of monetary gain.

"They will come to us because of our policies," he declared in the Parliament lobby.

Azmin called on Datuk Abdul Rahman Dahlan (BN-Kota Belud) to prove his claim that he was offered millions of ringgit to cross over.

"Tell us how much, the date and who was the person who made the offer."

Azmin also took a swipe at Information Minister Datuk Ahmad Shabery Cheek.

"How many times did he move? He moved from Pas, Semangat 45 and then to Umno," he said of Shabery's labelling of leaders.

In a press statement, DAP chairman Karpal Singh also took Shabery to task over the remarks, reminding the minister that he himself was once with Semangat 46.

Karpal Singh: Shabery should be ashamed

The Sun (15/5/08): Information Minister Datuk Ahmad Shabery Cheek should be the last person to label members of opposing parties switching sides as "political prostitutes" since he himself had done so, said DAP chairman Karpal Singh.

Shabery also said only those addicted to prostitution would use such a method to achieve political satisfaction.

Karpal Singh stressed that he himself did not subscribe to crossovers. "To me they are political kangaroos who betray the very people who voted them," he said.

"Shabery appears to have a short memory," said Karpal Singh.

"He, together with his political master Gua Musang MP Tengku Razaleigh Hamzah disbanded Semangat 46 and engaged in full-scale "political prostitution" by crossing over lock, stock and barrel to the Barisan Nasional," he added.

Karpal Singh said Shabery and his compatriots in the now defunct Semangat 46 have no business now to speak from a high moral ground.

"His statement against crossovers constitutes undiluted and unadulterated hypocrisy for which he should be ashamed," he said.

Karpal Singh said Shabery should take time off to ponder over the following adage: "Those who live in glass houses should draw the curtains before undressing."

By hitting out at crossovers, Shabery has undressed himself without drawing the curtains, thereby showing the whole world the naked truth.

Hopping hurdles in the way of opposition front to form federal govt

Bernama (15/5/08): Over the last few weeks, there has been talk that the Opposition front may be in a position to form the next federal government given the not-so-robust majority of Barisan Nasional (BN) in Parliament after the 12th general election.

Debates and conversations on this probability or improbability have been taking centre stage of late among politicians, political analysts, business people and even people at the grassroots.

The BN has 140 seats or 63.1 per cent of the total number of 222 seats.

It garnered 4.082 million votes during the election or 50.6 per cent of the popular vote.

If Parti Keadilan Rakyat (PKR) adviser Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim is to be believed, then perhaps he may have made it sound rather relatively easy with his contention that all the Opposition alliance needs is just 30 Members of Parliament from the BN to cross over.

They could then form the next government based on a simple majority.

At present, the Opposition has 82 seats including one independent MP.

Anwar has been reportedly saying that his party had managed to entice a number of MPs who would be willing to jump across.

However, based on a document being distributed by some unknown quarters in Parliament today, the matter is not as easy as it seems.

The document, written by people who have a strong understanding of Constitutional Law, argues that the Opposition front, in order to achieve what it aims to do, has to overcome various hurdles in the form of several laws in the Federal Constitution.

According to the document, the number one obstacle is provided under Article 43(5), which states that the Yang di-Pertuan Agong has no power to dismiss the prime minister.

But if the prime minister ceases to command the confidence of the Dewan Rakyat, then the prime minister must exercise one of several choices.

One is to submit the resignation of his entire government as provided for in Article 43(4) or advise the Yang di-Pertuan Agong to dissolve the Dewan Rakyat and call a new election as per Article 43(4).

But the Yang di-Pertuan Agong has the discreton to refuse the advice to dissolve the Dewan Rakyat as stated in Article 40(2)(b).

In the event of this, the Yang di-Pertuan Agong has to appoint someone who, in His Majesty's judgement, is likely to command the confidence of the Lower House.

The note also reveals that if the prime minister were to lose in a snap vote of confidence but is able to re-group his supporters and rebuild a majority, he is eligible to be reappointed again as the Yang di-Pertuan Agong has some discretion on who is best able to command the confidence of the Lower House.

Another obstacle for the Opposition is that no extra-parliamentary dismisal is possible unless the Dewan Rakyat dismisses the prime minister as the Yang di-Pertuan Agong has no power to remove the prime minister (Article 43(5)).

To reinforce its contention, the document cited the case of then Sarawak Chief Minister Stephen Kalong Ningkan versus the then Sarawak Yang Dipertua Negeri Tun Abang Haji Openg in Sarawak in 1966, which confirmed that unless there was a vote of no-confidence, a valid appointment cannot be revoked by the Yang Dipertua Negeri.

The document also pointed out that if the Dewan Rakyat were to be dissolved, then the previous prime minister would remain in office in a caretaker government capacity.

Although this was not laid down in the Constitution, it was a well established constitutional convention in the United Kingdom (UK), Malaysia and throughout the Commonwealth, it argued.

In addition, the document also argued that the inability of a party to secure a two-third majority did not hamper law-making or the passing of the federal government's budget.

"In the UK, governments come to power with less than 50 per cent of the popular vote and with a base majority in the elected House. This is not the first time that the Alliance-BN did not gain a two-third majority.

In 1969, the Alliance failed to secure more than 50 per cent of the votes and failed to obtain a two-third majority.

Tun Abdul Razak administered the country from Feb 20 1971 to the 1974 elections on a simple majority in the Dewan Rakyat," it stated.

At the same time, the document also pointed out that in the case of Nordin Salleh (1994), the Supreme Court held that the Kelantan anti-hopping law was a breach of freedom guaranteed by Article 10(1)(c).

Nordin, then the PAS state assemblyman for Sungei Pinang, joined Umno in 1992.

The Kelantan state government then enacted an anti-hopping law for politicians but the Supreme Court later ruled that it was unconstitutional.

The way to overcome this judicial decision is possible through a number of ways.

One is to have a constitutional amendment to Article 10 (2)(c) to forbid party-hopping.

But in the present political context, BN, without a two-third majority, may not be possible to secure this amendment.

The other is to promulgate an Emergency Ordinance under Article 150(2B) to provide for anyone who has been expelled or who resigns from the party on whose ticket he or she was elected to the Dewan Rakyat to vacate his or her seat and return to the electorate in a by-election.

Alternatively, a law can be promulgated to ensure that the "hopper" is disqualified to contest for five years and this will be similar to Article 48(6), which deals with MPs who resign from the Dewan Rakyat.

The note further explains that an emergency ordinance is an executive piece of law-making outside of Parliament, which only requires the Yang di-Pertuan Agong's assent.

It can be enacted if two requirements are met -- that there is an emergency in the country and that the two Houses of Parliament are not sitting concurrently.

This ordinance can be justified as a "collapse of civil government" is also a form of "emergency" as laid down by the Privy Council in the Stephen Kalong Ningkan versus the Government of Malaysia (1968) case.

Ringgit tumbles to lowest level since January

The Edge Daily (15/5/08): The Malaysian ringgit tumbled to the lowest level since Jan 24 this year closing at RM3.26 against the greenback yesterday.

According to analysts, strong oil prices, which are testing the US$125 (RM400) per barrel mark, generated demand for the US dollar, which led to most currencies taking a fall against the greenback. The US dollar was also given a boost by better retail sales data for April, from the US economy. This is an indication that the US will not need to slash its key interest rates further.

Other Asian currencies also weaken against the US dollar. However, among Asian currencies, the ringgit was the worst hit, as the unstable political climate added to the woes.

Political observers said that the recent statements by members of parliament (MPs) from Sabah increased the risk of political instability in the country. Over the last two weeks, three MPs from Sabah have expressed their dissatisfaction over the treatment from the federal government. The grouses range from inadequate oil subsidies to insufficient positions in the Cabinet.

The growing voice of MPs in Sabah has lent credence to speculation that some of them could cross over to the opposition Pakatan Rakyat which is made up of DAP, PAS and Parti Keadilan Rakyat (PKR).

In tandem with the weakening ringgit, yields on short-term papers also increased. Five-year benchmark MGS rose by 70 basis points (bps) to 3.54% since May 5. The yields on three-year MGS meanwhile has climbed from 3.44% to 3.5% since last Monday, indicating a selldown in debt papers.

Much of the weakening in the ringgit was also a result of China raising its reserve requirement ratio (RRR) by 50 bps to 16.5%, its fourth hike this year to stem off inflation. A combination of high-growth economy fuelled by foreign investments has contributed to a higher inflation rate in China.

According to a report by HwangDBS, China may want to slow the yuan’s pace of appreciation because the many factors that hastened its appreciation in 2006 and 2007 were no longer compelling.

“First, the trade surplus is narrower in the first four months of this year compared to ballooning surpluses in the past two years. Second, the stock market is still struggling to recover from its sharp fall, unlike the bull run in 2006 and 2007.

“Thirdly, Asian currencies are no longer appreciating across-the-board against the US dollar like they did in the past two years. Fourthly, US rates are no longer the highest amongst the G3 currencies, which makes managing the yuan appreciation pace harder. Fifthly, there is now a need to balance the yuan appreciation against the euro, not just against the US dollar,” HwangDBS added.

Many opined that the ringgit, to a certain extent, tracked the Yuan, as both currencies were unpegged from the greenback at the same time.

Dealers, however, said that this depreciation of the ringgit may be a short-lived and expected it to trade at a range of between RM3.15 and RM3.20 to the US dollar once the political climate stabilises. (Jose Barrock)

I was offered cash to defect, claims Rahman

Daily Express (15/5/08): Kota Belud MP Datuk Rahman Dahlan said he received a call offering him a huge sum of money and a Cabinet position should he switch allegiance to the Pakatan Rakyat.

He said the Opposition was not walking the talk since they had been calling the Barisan Nasional (BN) not to be involved in bribery but, instead, were practising corruption.

"I wish to ask whether the efforts of certain Opposition leaders offering inducement to (BN) MPs to entice them to jump (to the Opposition side) is not considered corruption," he said.

Participating in the debate on the motion of thanks to the royal address in Parliament here early this week, Rahman said that after offering money they then offered him a position in the Cabinet.

"Is it not bribery?," he asked.

Earlier, he said the Opposition should not be too overjoyed to hear the speeches of MPs from Sabah because they were actually the voices of Malaysians in Sabah at the grassroots level.

"Party hopping is not the main issue here. It came about because of other factors, that is the people in Sabah and Sarawak still thinking that the Federal Government is sidelining them.

"So it is not right for everyone to focus on the party hopping issue because the main issue here is the feeling of the people in Sabah who need the Federal Government's care and love. That is all," he said.

If all these grouses could be overcome the question of switching to the other side would not arise anymore, he said, adding that all these problems had already been relayed to the Prime Minister who is currently making efforts to solve them.

"It will be impossible to meet all these requests in just a blink of an eye," he said.

Rahman also raised the issue of the power transition arrangement in the PKR after Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim, which is important for the people to know should they form the government and become Prime Minister and whether the arrangement would affect the nation's stability.

He asked if PKR President Datin Seri Wan Azizah who is Permatang Pauh MP would leave her husband's shadow to take over the Prime Minister's post from him.

"Would the Pakatan Rakyat spring a surprise to create history by appointing the (Malaysia's) first Prime Minister from the Chinese or Indian community? We wait," he said.

"Maybe the Pakatan Rakyat would give chance to the PAS President who is MP for Marang to become Prime Minister," he said, adding that it might not be the case since the PAS President's dressing and image would send the wrong impression to international investors.

On another note, Rahman in urging the government to solve the illegal immigrant problems in the country proposed the levy and foreign workers processing fees be reduced.

Currently employers feel the high levy and processing fees are burdening them, he said, adding that by reducing the levy and fees it would encourage more foreign workers to come into the country legally.

"With more of them coming in legally, the easier it is for the government to monitor their activities in the country," he said.

Rahman also called for the government at all level to ensure the highly-publicised Sabah Development Corridor (SDC) project becomes a reality.

"Don't let it become a joke among the people because there have been so many instances where promises were not kept," he said, citing the promise to set up four Malaysian Maritime Enforcement Agency bases in Sabah as an example.

"Its intention is good to safeguard the State from negative elements like smuggling, piracy and intrusion by illegal immigrants but until now there is no sign of the project. In fact I was made to understand that even the sites are yet to be identified," he said.

Game still on after anti-climax

The hype that several Barisan Nasional MPs would be crossing over to the Pakatan Rakyat yesterday has fizzled out but the danger is not over.

The Star (15/5/08): Wednesday has come and gone, but no one has yet to cross the floor in Parliament.

For days, the buzz was that 17 MPs from Barisan Nasional would be defecting to Pakatan Rakyat on Wednesday.

It was likely the more hopeful had imagined that they would be a step closer to being the government of the day by Thursday. The Sabah MPs had heightened the mood over the past week when they defiantly aired their unhappiness, raising hopes on the Opposition bench.

But nothing of that sort happened. The Barisan is still in power, Datuk Seri Abdullah Ahmad Badawi is still the Prime Minister and Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim’s promises of having the numbers to form the government remain promises.

As Jelutong MP Jeff Ooi pointed out, one would have sensed it in the air if something so big were about to happen.

“There was a marked shift in mood by yesterday. The Sabah and Sarawak MPs who spoke in the morning made veiled criticism of the federal government for not taking care of their states but they also balanced it with pro-Barisan rhetoric,” said Ooi.

By afternoon, the anticipatory mood had evaporated. The moment, as they say, had passed.

But, said Ooi, it was quite clear even as early as Tuesday that some sort of compromise had been struck with the Sabah MPs.

“I would think Pak Lah used his experience to defuse the situation for now,” said Ooi.

It is no secret Abdullah has been busy fire-fighting the last few days, meeting up with key Sabah leaders, listening to them, asking for their understanding and providing some degree of assurance.

He has managed to forestall another potential crisis until at least August, which is the deadline of sorts from SAPP president and one of Sabah’s most fiery politicians, Datuk Yong Teck Lee, on Sabah demands.

In fact, he must have been pretty confident of their loyalty because he surprised everyone with an unscheduled appearance in Parliament on Tuesday at 11pm.

Datuk Rahman Dahlan, MP for Kota Belud in Sabah, was inside when he saw MPs, including a few ministers and deputy ministers, rushing in through almost every door in the House. Minutes later, a smiling and very relaxed-looking Abdullah walked in, took his seat at the prime spot and listened to the debate till Parliament adjourned at 11.45pm.

Younger MPs like Rahman called it a “spot check” but the political significance was quite clear. Abdullah was basically saying he is still around, he is not running scared of all the speculation of defections and he has things under control.

The east Malaysian MPs had caused ripples the past week, making speeches that were akin to veiled threats. It was a direct sign of just how dissatisfied they were with the political spoils of war, so to speak, and seemed to lend credence to Anwar’s claim of support.

“We are just voicing issues we feel strongly about. I’m quite close to my fellow Sabah MPs and I did not get the vibes that they would abandon Umno,” said Rahman.

It has been such an anti-climax and as Wednesday drew to a close, even PKR members were asking what had become of the promise of defections.

Among the Opposition coalition, PAS politicians have been the least excited over the crossover talk. Said a PAS MP from Kelantan: “Change must come from the ballot box. A coalition built on defections will not be stable or respected.”

The DAP, on its part, is trying to contain its assemblyman from defecting in Perak where the Pakatan Rakyat is holding on to power by a three-seat margin.

Still, the danger for Abdullah and the Barisan is not over, merely defused.

But yesterday’s non-event has deepened the perception that Anwar is a master at mind games. The build-up about him forming the government has been so tremendous that when he called a press conference on Monday, the media rushed to his office only to learn that it was about the Royal Commission report on the V. K. Lingam video.

Anwar has some names on his side but the numbers probably do not add up to forming the next government. Otherwise, he would have declared game over for Barisan by now. (Joceline Tan)