More parties weighing in for the Malay votes
The recent emergence of Parti Kegemilangan Bangsa Malaysia in Johor is not an issue that Umno hasn't handled before — it has even dealt with its own founder's splinter party. But Shannon Teoh senses that the situation today is unlike those that it has faced before.
NST (25/5/08): When a group of ex-Umno veterans formed Parti Kegemilangan Bangsa Malaysia (KBM) as a "back-up" to Umno last week, it was probably not the sort of safety net Umno was looking for. The situation was compounded on Monday when Tun Dr Mahathir Mohamad exited Umno and called for others to follow suit.
In an unprecedented situation, Umno is now having to deal with four splinter groups - Dr Mahathir's, KBM, Parti Keadilan Rakyat and Pas.
In the battle for the Malay electorate, Umno is now facing a multi-pronged attack, being accused of not championing Malay rights by Dr Mahathir and KBM while simultaneously fending off opinions that it has built up an ethnocracy founded on Malay dominance.
Considered Australia's foremost observer of Malaysian sociopolitics, sociology professor Clive Kessler believes that these recent developments are exerting an altogether new kind of pressure on Umno.
"These are ginger groups, so-called because they are spicy and are meant to lobby on particular issues. Whereas some splinter parties or even internal factions like Pemuda or Puteri might pressure from a position of youthful idealism, KBM and Dr Mahathir reprimand with the wisdom of the old patron," he said.
It's been more straightforward for Umno in the past. When founder Datuk Onn Jaafar formed the Independence of Malaya Party and then Parti Negara to push for multi-ethnicity, he was easily disposed of by Umno via its cohorts in the Alliance who had already positioned themselves as representatives of the different races.
The Team A-Team B schism in Umno resulted in Tengku Razaleigh Hamzah establishing Semangat 46 in 1989 to try and wrest power from Umno.
However, Semangat 46 found itself squeezed out by Pas loyalists in their shared home of Kelantan despite the loose coalition they had formed.
After just two elections, Umno was only too happy to negotiate the first voluntary dissolution of a political party through the process of law and allowed Semangat members back into the fold.
In between these two incidences, there were other splinters such as the National Association of Perak, Perak Malay League and former cabinet member Aziz Ishak's National Convention Party that never came to much.
Wong Chin Huat, a journalism lecturer who is pursuing a PhD on Malaysia's electoral system and party politics, explains that it is difficult for any Malay party, let alone an Umno splinter, to survive because of the constant desire for Malay unity.
"Because of the perceived threat to their dominance by other races, Malays tend to suppress the number of parties. Pas succeeded in the Malay heartland of Kelantan and Terengganu because there weren't many non-Malays and the people felt secure enough to allow a second party to operate."
Pas itself splintered from Umno and was the first mover after establishing itself where Parti Negara failed. Its "captive market" of Islamic support in the east coast was in contrast to Parti Negara's scattered support which saw the latter fall victim to the first-past-the-post electoral system.
Today, Pas is joined by PKR as the only Umno splinters and indeed, Malay-dominant parties that have survived in the long-term. After March 8, PKR can claim to have surpassed the psychological three-election watershed and has come out of it as the largest opposition party in Parliament.
Kessler believes that these splinters have survived where others have not because they were not just based on personalities but because they cleaved out a constituency.
"Pas brought out latent Islamic concerns and made it overt. Same with (Datuk Seri) Anwar (Ibrahim), it's not just personal to him, his agenda connected with the generation who grew up under the NEP (New Economic Policy). The parties were not just grabbing a power bloc from Umno; they were new groups being conscious of themselves."
However, if Wong's historical observation is to be taken into consideration, then more changes are afoot. Putting Pas aside and allocating it the timeless Islamic east coast support, if Malays are to back just one party to represent them, then either Umno or PKR must fall.
Johan Saravanamuttu Abdullah, visiting research fellow at the Institute of Southeast Asian Studies, Singapore, noted that Umno's capability to see off challenges by splinters has been weakened by blows to its hitherto rock-solid institutional strength.
"At this particular political moment, factionalism has become endemic and it seems to be a party in its 'September' years ever since the reformasi movement took a chunk out of Umno. Over the years, Pas has also slowly chipped away and eroded its structural strength."
And while this is a question of which Malay party will survive, Wong believes that the answer lies with the non-Malays.
"If in competing to be the prime Malay party Umno plays along the Malay nationalist line, non-Malays will be alienated and throw in their lot with PKR."
Should the tide swing towards Pakatan Rakyat, Malays who stand by Umno might find themselves at the losing end. While PKR is not highly institutionalised, its leadership has shown that it will not abandon Malay values.
Johan points out that PKR de facto leader Anwar and his wife, Datin Seri Dr Wan Azizah Wan Ismail, are regarded as deeply religious.
Kessler, however, thinks that it would be grossly premature to be writing obituaries for Umno.
While it cannot assume an automatic first claim to Malay votes, it can still make strategic moves to ride on the wave of new concerns by the electorate.
“A party has to choose and it can’t be all things to all people. Umno can’t be in favour and against Ketuanan Melayu at the same time.
“So, if Umno were to give up its diehard Malay vote and go after the progressive Muslims, it could win back votes that went to PKR and also supply its BN (Barisan Nasional) allies with the non-Malay vote.”
He added: “Umno has to be prepared to let someone else represent the hardcore Malay vote and instead build a coalition that aligns with social forces and politics of the future, not backward trends.”
Johan feels Umno needs to address certain clear and present issues quickly: “Checking Dr Mahathir is important. Go to Kedah and maintain your structures.
“The people have also been expecting you to deliver on the promise of reform so the cleaning up of the judiciary et al is necessary to show that you are a party capable of providing the change required.”
No doubt though, that these recommendations imply efforts at making PKR unnecessary.
However, 57 years ago, when Onn first mooted a consociationist multi-ethnic party led by Malays, it was shot down emphatically by Umno.
“It’s been a very long learning curve,” Wong concluded.
“The problem then was that leftism wasn’t in the mainstream perhaps because the communists didn’t disarm and contest democratically. Maybe society has become settled today and nobody wants to be an all-out liberal or have a pure Malay ethnocracy.
“So it’s come to some sort of consensus, and you can’t challenge the people’s decision on this and, in a sense, you have to congratulate Umno for achieving this.”
NST (25/5/08): When a group of ex-Umno veterans formed Parti Kegemilangan Bangsa Malaysia (KBM) as a "back-up" to Umno last week, it was probably not the sort of safety net Umno was looking for. The situation was compounded on Monday when Tun Dr Mahathir Mohamad exited Umno and called for others to follow suit.
In an unprecedented situation, Umno is now having to deal with four splinter groups - Dr Mahathir's, KBM, Parti Keadilan Rakyat and Pas.
In the battle for the Malay electorate, Umno is now facing a multi-pronged attack, being accused of not championing Malay rights by Dr Mahathir and KBM while simultaneously fending off opinions that it has built up an ethnocracy founded on Malay dominance.
Considered Australia's foremost observer of Malaysian sociopolitics, sociology professor Clive Kessler believes that these recent developments are exerting an altogether new kind of pressure on Umno.
"These are ginger groups, so-called because they are spicy and are meant to lobby on particular issues. Whereas some splinter parties or even internal factions like Pemuda or Puteri might pressure from a position of youthful idealism, KBM and Dr Mahathir reprimand with the wisdom of the old patron," he said.
It's been more straightforward for Umno in the past. When founder Datuk Onn Jaafar formed the Independence of Malaya Party and then Parti Negara to push for multi-ethnicity, he was easily disposed of by Umno via its cohorts in the Alliance who had already positioned themselves as representatives of the different races.
The Team A-Team B schism in Umno resulted in Tengku Razaleigh Hamzah establishing Semangat 46 in 1989 to try and wrest power from Umno.
However, Semangat 46 found itself squeezed out by Pas loyalists in their shared home of Kelantan despite the loose coalition they had formed.
After just two elections, Umno was only too happy to negotiate the first voluntary dissolution of a political party through the process of law and allowed Semangat members back into the fold.
In between these two incidences, there were other splinters such as the National Association of Perak, Perak Malay League and former cabinet member Aziz Ishak's National Convention Party that never came to much.
Wong Chin Huat, a journalism lecturer who is pursuing a PhD on Malaysia's electoral system and party politics, explains that it is difficult for any Malay party, let alone an Umno splinter, to survive because of the constant desire for Malay unity.
"Because of the perceived threat to their dominance by other races, Malays tend to suppress the number of parties. Pas succeeded in the Malay heartland of Kelantan and Terengganu because there weren't many non-Malays and the people felt secure enough to allow a second party to operate."
Pas itself splintered from Umno and was the first mover after establishing itself where Parti Negara failed. Its "captive market" of Islamic support in the east coast was in contrast to Parti Negara's scattered support which saw the latter fall victim to the first-past-the-post electoral system.
Today, Pas is joined by PKR as the only Umno splinters and indeed, Malay-dominant parties that have survived in the long-term. After March 8, PKR can claim to have surpassed the psychological three-election watershed and has come out of it as the largest opposition party in Parliament.
Kessler believes that these splinters have survived where others have not because they were not just based on personalities but because they cleaved out a constituency.
"Pas brought out latent Islamic concerns and made it overt. Same with (Datuk Seri) Anwar (Ibrahim), it's not just personal to him, his agenda connected with the generation who grew up under the NEP (New Economic Policy). The parties were not just grabbing a power bloc from Umno; they were new groups being conscious of themselves."
However, if Wong's historical observation is to be taken into consideration, then more changes are afoot. Putting Pas aside and allocating it the timeless Islamic east coast support, if Malays are to back just one party to represent them, then either Umno or PKR must fall.
Johan Saravanamuttu Abdullah, visiting research fellow at the Institute of Southeast Asian Studies, Singapore, noted that Umno's capability to see off challenges by splinters has been weakened by blows to its hitherto rock-solid institutional strength.
"At this particular political moment, factionalism has become endemic and it seems to be a party in its 'September' years ever since the reformasi movement took a chunk out of Umno. Over the years, Pas has also slowly chipped away and eroded its structural strength."
And while this is a question of which Malay party will survive, Wong believes that the answer lies with the non-Malays.
"If in competing to be the prime Malay party Umno plays along the Malay nationalist line, non-Malays will be alienated and throw in their lot with PKR."
Should the tide swing towards Pakatan Rakyat, Malays who stand by Umno might find themselves at the losing end. While PKR is not highly institutionalised, its leadership has shown that it will not abandon Malay values.
Johan points out that PKR de facto leader Anwar and his wife, Datin Seri Dr Wan Azizah Wan Ismail, are regarded as deeply religious.
Kessler, however, thinks that it would be grossly premature to be writing obituaries for Umno.
While it cannot assume an automatic first claim to Malay votes, it can still make strategic moves to ride on the wave of new concerns by the electorate.
“A party has to choose and it can’t be all things to all people. Umno can’t be in favour and against Ketuanan Melayu at the same time.
“So, if Umno were to give up its diehard Malay vote and go after the progressive Muslims, it could win back votes that went to PKR and also supply its BN (Barisan Nasional) allies with the non-Malay vote.”
He added: “Umno has to be prepared to let someone else represent the hardcore Malay vote and instead build a coalition that aligns with social forces and politics of the future, not backward trends.”
Johan feels Umno needs to address certain clear and present issues quickly: “Checking Dr Mahathir is important. Go to Kedah and maintain your structures.
“The people have also been expecting you to deliver on the promise of reform so the cleaning up of the judiciary et al is necessary to show that you are a party capable of providing the change required.”
No doubt though, that these recommendations imply efforts at making PKR unnecessary.
However, 57 years ago, when Onn first mooted a consociationist multi-ethnic party led by Malays, it was shot down emphatically by Umno.
“It’s been a very long learning curve,” Wong concluded.
“The problem then was that leftism wasn’t in the mainstream perhaps because the communists didn’t disarm and contest democratically. Maybe society has become settled today and nobody wants to be an all-out liberal or have a pure Malay ethnocracy.
“So it’s come to some sort of consensus, and you can’t challenge the people’s decision on this and, in a sense, you have to congratulate Umno for achieving this.”
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